Climate forecasts have been developed using complex modelling undertaken by scientists affiliated with the University of Tasmania and the CSIRO, who are active contributors to the ‘Climate Futures for Tasmania’ initiative. These projections are based on greenhouse gas emission scenarios derived from the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the leading authority on climate science globally.
For our municipality, climate projections through 2100 indicate an alarming trend towards increased temperatures. Estimated temperature rises by 2100 range from 1.3 to 3.3 degrees Celsius. This range hinges on the trajectory of emissions and whether they persistently escalate under a ‘business as usual’ scenario, or, are curtailed due to substantial efforts to diminish greenhouse gas emissions from human activities.
Here are some anticipated changes:
- Rainfall patterns will shift, so it won’t rain as often but it will rain more heavily when it does. This will cause rapid filling and overflow of rivers, drains, and gutters during rainy periods.
- Severe flooding will happen more often.
- More intense storms will lead to larger waves battering the coastline.
- Temperatures will be more extreme: we will have hotter summer days, extended warm periods, and more heatwaves.
- We won’t have as many frosty days.
- Growing conditions for certain crops will improve, while others will not be as lucky. In Tasmania, there will be more grapes and more wine!
What can we do about a warming climate?
Adaptation and Mitigation are two essential strategies to meet the challenges of a warming climate.
Adaptation involves developing and implementing measures that reduce the vulnerability of communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure to the changing climate. This includes building tougher infrastructure, conserving water, and strengthening natural ecosystems against extreme weather events.
Mitigation aims to slow down climate change by reducing the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. By doing so, we can protect the planet’s ecosystems, biodiversity, and enhance wellbeing. This includes transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, improving energy efficiency, and implementing sustainable land use practices.
Both these strategies are connected and need us to work with governments, industries, communities, and individuals.
What are we doing to Adapt and Mitigate?
Most of our efforts in adapting to climate change have been to be energy efficient and look at coastal risks, such as erosion and flooding caused by rising sea levels. However, we are developing a more Climate Change Adaptation Plan that takes a broader approach.
We were the first Council in Tasmania to involve our community in discussions about the consequences of elevated sea levels on coastal towns. We also have a monitoring program to watch our changing shorelines in Clarence. The shoreline can be seen moving inland in several coastal locations, notably Roches Beach and Pipe Clay Lagoon.